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 Analysis of extraordinary events

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PostSubject: Analysis of extraordinary events   Wed Jul 14, 2010 10:06 am

When people see something incredibly unlikely, those who are ignorant of the statistics involved with the event may attribute it to the supernatural or design.

Think of it like this - if there was a lottery involving everyone in the world, the one person who wins may attribute his fortune to the supernatural or rigging of the event. Yet, this is ridiculous - someone HAS to win the lottery, so nothing incredible happened. The probability that someone would win is an absolute certainty (barring a cancelation of the lottery), so theres no reason that the events couldn't have occured naturally.

Likewise, if there was any other event that had a likeliness of 1 in 6 billion chance of occuring, it would, statistically speaking, almost certainly be observed by at least one person. I don't think that people realize that these astronomically unlikely events are practically gaurenteed to occur every day, without supernatural influence. Suspect

This explains all of the statistically insignificant coincidences involved with 9/11, Lincoln and Ford, and apocolypse theories.

I mention this because the numerous videos on youtube claiming that Obama is the Antichrist. Then look at all the Bush antichrist videos. See? Ridiculous. Very Happy

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PostSubject: Re: Analysis of extraordinary events   Wed Jul 14, 2010 10:16 am

Say we're playing Dungeons and Dragons, and one of us gets an epic-critical for a first hit in a boss fight. Sign from God?

Yes, this would be outrageously unlikely, but over the course of playing the game, it is bound to happen sometime.

Chance of getting an epic critical - 20x20x20 = 1 in 8000

Then, you notice that our boss to little guy ratio is about 1 in every 5.

Then, we have to decide how many hits it takes to kill a boss. Let's say, ten. So the first hit will be 1 in 10.

8000 x 5 x 10 = 400,000.

So after rolling the D20 400,000 times during a game of D&D, it is statistically "certain" that you will score an epic-critical on a boss on the first attack.

All without divine influence. Congratulations.

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PostSubject: Re: Analysis of extraordinary events   Wed Jul 14, 2010 10:41 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esJogTzgqgg&feature=related

Notice the scare-tactics in the video, namely the music. It makes the video laughable.

AND THE TYPOES!!! lol!

And one more thing - The person who posted this video deletes comments of people who post dissenting opinions.

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